19 Feb Jobs in India in 2030 – what awaits us all?
Many of today’s students will soon be part of India’s growing young workforce. Grade 10 student Anchal Agrawal looks at the factors which will impact on the nation’s demographic dividend over the coming years, a subject with touches on her interests of Economics, Mathematics and Geography.
“I chose to research how much the demographic dividend affects the employment rate of India in the next 10 years.” says Anchal. “I am doing this for my Personal Project as I can relate myself to this topic because I am a teenager and in the next decade I will be seeking a job. This will help me to understand the possibilities of employment in my home country for me and my generation.”
Investopedia refers demographic dividend to the economic growth of a country which is influenced by the change in the population pyramid (a division of a country’s graph in regard to age and sex) of that specific country. The change refers to the growth or the increase in the population aged 18-60 years, or the labour force of the country. This often happens due to the reduction of fertility rates and mortality rates.
There are six channels through which Demographic Dividend is generated and helps to increase the economic growth of a country. First is the gradual increments in the percentage of the population that can have a productive input into the economy, known as the independent sector (aged 18-60 years). Second is the increase in the fiscal space. Fiscal space means that how much a country can spend on their development through new technology, infrastructure etc on the bases of their revenue. The third is the rise in the female workforce and this means that women have started earning which will cause a consequent decline in fertility growth. Fourth is the increase in saving rate as the working age is the essential time when most people save for their future. Fifth is that the saving period which is spread over a longer period of time. This results in the increase in revenue during a person’s retirement which will make him/her more financially stable. Lastly, there will be a gradual shift in the social structure with notable growth in the middle class. This new tendency will result in an increase in productivity and consumption, leading to an increase in quality of life.
To conclude, whenever the working population (independent people) increases, the economy normally increases because there are more people in a country who are contributing to its growth. Independent people also support the dependent population. For example, a 35-year-old man and a woman take care of their parents and children. Hence, If there are more people that can feed rather than to be fed, the economy will eventually increase. This plays a considerable role in the lucrative success of a country. Therefore, to calculate the demographic dividend, a country’s population pyramid needs to be monitored.
India had a high fertility rate in the past fifteen years especially when compared to emerging nations like China and developed countries such as The United States and Japan. Hence, in the next ten years, the population of the independent people in India will multiply. This will result in the swelling of the workforce. Due to this India has a very high opportunity for the increase in their employment rate. This Demographic Dividend can be linked with job opportunities for the future generation and this could contribute to greater economic growth which will help development in several fields. This will also help India to sustain a better position globally as its GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will increase and there may be an advancement in technologies as well. So, changes in the population pyramid or population percentages based on age have the potential to contribute towards economic growth.
Four Factors for the Future
However, there are several other factors that can affect the employment rate and can affect the growth of the Indian Economy.
First is the quality of education. If the young generation is not getting educated adequately then, it will be hard for them to find a good job or start their own income. Proper education helps to develop technical and academic knowledge. It also helps individuals to have a wider range of career options and better job skills.
Second is the adequate amount of nutrition. It is very essential to have a healthy living in order to have a healthy future. One-third of the population under the age of three are malnutritioned and several are underweight. This can lead to a high mortality rate which will then decrease the population of independent people as they have a high risk of death at an early age due to weak immunity. This will then eventually affect the economic rate as the number of independent educated people will decrease and will also affect the productivity of the Indian economy due to health-related absences.
Third is the women empowerment. Women in India are trying to earn money and develop their interests in a career. Still, according to the International Labour Organization (ILO), India has one of the lowest rates of women workforce. They have constantly, for the past decades, have been victims of domestic violence and gender inequality. BBC said in 2014 that, 3,09,546 women were abused of rape, kidnapping, molestation, domestic violence, and others. Morever, it has not been decreasing because Times of India had reported 76,000 crimes against women took place in India in the state of Uttar Pradesh in the span of three months in 2018.
Lastly, it is job opportunities. India has high opportunities to attract industries that could generate jobs because it has a high population of independent people and relatively low labour costs. However, it can decrease due to technological advances as human force would not be needed for all the tasks. For example, if all the cooperative buildings and houses start having CCTV cameras and alarm bells on the main door, there wouldn’t be a need of a human guard. These are some of the aspects that play an important part in the increase of the employment rate.
To conclude, Demographic Dividend is one of the very important indicators for the increase of the Indian economy and the employment but there are other factors that affect them too. Hence, the documented increase in the independent population cannot be a guarantee. This can also be applied to other countries because predicting rates of employment rate and eco
nomic growth can affect migration patterns as workers will want to establish residence in countries where there is a likelihood of finding employment. Also, India’s employment rate and economic growth will affect regional and even global economies due to its size and potential productivity. Therefore, this report has global significance.
Anchal Agrawal, Grade 10 Student
Mumbai Cityscape, Surya Sharma, Wikicommons
Group photo: Our current Grade 10 class pictured in the Spring 2018
Capetown and group shot of girls : Anchal Agrawal